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Climate Change after Bali

Do the math: affordable new technologies can prevent global warming while fostering growth


Last December’s agreement in Bali to launch a two-year negotiation on climate change was good news, a rare example of international cooperation in a world seemingly stuck in a spiral of conflict. Cynics might note that the only accomplishment was an agreement to talk some more, and their cynicism may yet be confirmed. Nevertheless, the growing understanding that serious climate-control measures are feasible at modest cost is welcome.

The arithmetic is becoming clearer. If the rich nations continue to grow in income and the poor ones systematically narrow the income gap with successful development, by 2050 the global economy might increase sixfold and global energy use roughly fourfold. Today’s anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are around 36 billion tons annually, of which 29 billion are the result of fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes, and another seven billion or so are the result of tropical deforestation.

Roughly speaking, every 30 billion tons of emissions raises CO2 levels by around two parts per million (ppm). The current atmospheric concentration of CO2 is around 380 ppm, up from 280 ppm at the start of the industrial era in 1800. Thus, to arrive at 440 ppm by midcentury—a plausibly achievable “safe” level in terms of its likely climate change consequences but only 60 ppm more than the current one—cumulative emissions should be kept to roughly 900 billion tons, or roughly 21 billion tons a year on average until 2050. This goal can be achieved by ending deforestation (on a net basis) and by cutting our current fossil-fuel-based emissions by one third.

So here is the challenge. Can the world economy use four times more primary energy while lowering emissions by one third?

A promising core strategy seems to be the following: Electricity needs to be made virtually emission-free, through the mass mobilization of solar and nuclear power and the capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide from coal-burning power plants. With a clean power grid, most of the other emissions can also be controlled. In less than a decade, plug-in hybrid automobiles recharged on the grid will probably get 100 miles per gallon. Clean electricity could produce hydrogen for fuel-cell-powered vehicles and replace on-site boilers and furnaces for residential heating. The major industrial emitters could be required (or induced through taxation for tradable permits) to capture their CO2 emissions or to convert part of their processes to run on power cells and clean electricity.

Carbon capture and sequestration at coal-fired power plants might raise costs for electricity as little as one to three cents per kilowatt-hour, according to a special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The mass conversion of the U.S. to solar power might involve an incremental cost of roughly four cents per kilowatt-hour, with overall electricity costs on the order of eight to nine cents per kilowatt-hour. These incremental costs imply far less than 1 percent of the world’s annual income to convert to a clean power grid. The costs in the other sectors will also be small. The fuel savings of low-emissions cars could easily pay for batteries or fuel cells. Residential heating by electricity (or co-generated heat) rather than by home boilers will generally yield a net savings, especially when combined with improved insulation.

The Bali negotiations will succeed if the world keeps its eye on supporting the speedy adoption of low-emissions technologies. Issues of blame, allocation of costs, and choice of control mechanisms are less important than rapid technological development and deployment, backed by a control mechanism chosen by each country.

If the less polluting technologies pan out at low cost, as seems possible, the rich countries will be able to afford to clean up their own energy systems while also bearing part of the costs to enable the poor to make the needed conversions. Climate control is not a morality play. It is mainly a practical and solvable technological challenge, which, if met correctly, can be combined with the needs and aspirations for a growing global economy.



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Gene studies confirm "out of Africa" theories

Photo
A compass lies on a map of Africa in London August 1, 2002. Two big genetic studies confirm theories that modern humans evolved in Africa and then migrated through Europe and Asia to reach the Pacific and Americas.

Two big genetic studies confirm theories that modern humans evolved in Africa and then migrated through Europe and Asia to reach the Pacific and Americas.

The two studies also show that Africans have the most diverse DNA, and the fewest potentially harmful genetic mutations.

One of the studies shows European-Americans have more small mutations, while the others show Native Americans, Polynesians and others who populated Australia and Oceania have more big genetic changes.

The studies, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, paint a picture of a population of humans migrating off the African continent, and then shrinking at some point because of unknown adversity.

Later populations grew and spread from this smaller genetic pool of founder ancestors -- a phenomenon known as a bottleneck.

Populations that remained in Africa kept their genetic diversity -- something seen in many other studies.

"The one thing that I think we cannot say from this study is that any one person's genome is any healthier or evolutionarily fit than another person's genome," said Carlos Bustamante of Cornell University in New York, who worked on one study.

"You have to think of this at the population level," Bustamante said in a telephone interview.

Bustamante's team has been looking at the DNA sequences of 15 African-Americans and 20 European-Americans, examining tiny one-letter changes in the DNA code called single-nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs (pronounced "snips").

FIT OR EXTINCT

They tested these changes to qualify them as benign, or potentially affecting genes, amino acids and eventually proteins in a way that could damage health or make people less "fit" -- in evolutionary terms, less likely to survive and reproduce.

"Like every other study ... the African-American panel as a whole showed more variation than the European-American panel," Bustamante said.

Then his team did a computer simulation of a bottleneck, and found it predicted this pattern.

Bustamante said it is possible some of the SNPs are beneficial, and he said his team and others should compare the genetic changes they found to known genetic changes linked with diseases.

"I wish we had done that (already)," he admitted.

In the other study, Noah Rosenberg and colleagues at the University of Michigan and the National Institute on Aging analyzed DNA from 485 people around the world.

They looked for three types of genetic variation, including SNPs and larger changes that involve duplications, deletions and repetitions of large segments of DNA.

The patterns they found produced what they call the highest-resolution map yet of human genetic variation.

They also reinforce the idea that humans originated in Africa, then spread into the Middle East, followed by Europe and Asia, the Pacific Islands and finally to the Americas.

"Diversity has been eroded through the migration process," Rosenberg said in a statement.

People of African descent are the most genetically diverse, followed by people from the Middle East, and then Asians and Europeans. Native Americans resemble one another the most on a DNA level.

The study also found it is sometimes possible to trace a person's ancestry to a small group within a geographic region.

Plastic (Not) Fantastic: Food Containers Leach a Potentially Harmful Chemical

Is bisphenol A, a major ingredient in many plastics, healthy for children and other living things?

plastic-water-bottles 
CHEMICAL LEACHING: When exposed to hot water, plastic bottles--including baby bottles--leach a chemical that is known to mimic estrogens in the body.

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a ubiquitous compound in plastics. First synthesized in 1891, the chemical has become a key building block of
plastics from polycarbonate to polyester; in the U.S. alone more than 2.3 billion pounds (1.04 million metric tons) of the stuff is manufactured annually.

 

Since at least 1936 it has been known that BPA mimics estrogens, binding to the same receptors throughout the human body as natural female hormones. And tests have shown that the chemical can promote human breast cancer cell growth as well as decrease sperm count in rats, among other effects. These findings have raised questions about the potential health risks of BPA, especially in the wake of hosts of studies showing that it leaches from plastics and resins when they are exposed to hard use or high temperatures (as in microwaves or dishwashers).

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) found traces of BPA in nearly all of the urine samples it collected in 2004 as part of an effort to gauge the prevalence of various chemicals in the human body. It appeared at levels ranging from 33 to 80 nanograms (a nanogram is one billionth of a gram) per kilogram of body weight in any given day, levels 1,000 times lower than the 50 micrograms (one millionth of a gram) per kilogram of bodyweight per day considered safe by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the European Union's (E.U.) European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).

Studies suggest that BPA does not linger in the body for more than a few days because, once ingested, it is broken down into glucuronide, a waste product that is easily excreted. Yet, the CDC found glucuronide in most urine samples, suggesting constant exposure to it. "There is low-level exposure but regular low-level exposure," says chemist Steven Hentges, executive director of the polycarbonate / BPA global group of the American Chemistry Council.  "It presumably is in our diet."

BPA is routinely used to line cans to prevent corrosion and food contamination; it also makes plastic cups and baby and other bottles transparent and shatterproof. When the polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins made from the chemical are exposed to hot liquids, BPA leaches out 55 times faster than it does under normal conditions, according to a new study by Scott Belcher, an endocrine biologist at the University of Cincinnati. "When we added boiling water [to bottles made from polycarbonate] and allowed it to cool, the rate [of leakage] was greatly increased," he says, to a level as high as 32 nanograms per hour.

A recent report in the journal Reproductive Toxicology found that humans must be exposed to levels of BPA at least 10 times what the EPA has deemed safe because of the amount of the chemical detected in tissue and blood samples. "If, as some evidence indicates, humans metabolize BPA more rapidly than rodents," wrote study author Laura Vandenberg, a developmental biologist at Tufts University in Boston, "then human daily exposure would have to be even higher to be sufficient to produce the levels observed in human serum."

The CDC data shows that 93 percent of 2,157 people between the ages of six and 85 tested had detectable levels of BPA's by-product in their urine. "Children had higher levels than adolescents and adolescents had higher levels than adults," says endocrinologist Retha Newbold of the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, who found that BPA impairs fertility in female mice. "In animals, BPA can cause permanent effects after very short periods of exposure. It doesn't have to remain in the body to have an effect."

But experts are split on the potential health hazards to humans. The Food and Drug Administration has approved its use and the EPA does not consider it cause for concern. One U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) panel agreed, but another team of government scientists last year found that the amount of BPA present in humans exceeds levels that have caused ill effects in animals. They also found that adults' ability to tolerate it does not preclude damaging effects in infants and children.

"It is the unborn baby and children that investigators are most worried about," Newbold says, noting that BPA was linked to increased breast and prostate cancer occurrences, altered menstrual cycles and diabetes in lab mice that were still developing.

Fred vom Saal, a reproductive biologist at the University of Missouri–Columbia, warns that babies likely face the "highest exposure" in human populations, because both baby bottles and infant formula cans likely leach BPA. "In animal studies, the levels that cause harm happen at 10 times below what is common in the U.S." says vom Saal, who also headed the NIH panel that concluded the chemical may pose risks to humans.

Amid growing concern, Rep. John Dingell (D–Mich.) chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, has launched an investigation into BPA, sending letters last month to the FDA and seven manufacturers of infant products sold in the U.S. requesting information on any BPA safety tests as well as specific levels in the baby goods. The companies that make Similac, Earth's Best and Good Start have already responded, confirming that they coat the inside of their cans with BPA but that analyses did not detect it in the contents. They also emphasize that FDA has approved BPA for such use.

"Based on the studies reviewed by FDA, adverse effects occur in animals only at levels of BPA that are far higher orders of magnitude than those to which infants or adults are exposed," says FDA spokeswoman Stephanie Kwisnek. "Therefore, FDA sees no reason to ban or otherwise restrict the uses now authorized at this time."

FDA first approved BPA as a food container in 1963 because no ill effects from its use had been shown. When Congress passed a law—the Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976—mandating that the EPA conduct or review safety studies on new chemicals before giving them the nod, compounds like BPA were already on the market. Therefore, they were not subject to the new rules nor required to undergo additional testing unless specific concerns had been raised (such as in the case of PCBs). "The science that exists today supports the safety of BPA," ACC's Hentges says, based largely on research his organization has funded.

But other studies since 1976 have shown that small doses (less than one part per billion) of estrogenlike chemicals, such as BPA, may be damaging. "In fetal mouse prostate you can stimulate receptors with estradiol at about two tenths of a part per trillion, and with BPA at a thousand times higher," vom Saal says. "That's still 10 times lower than what a six-year-old has." In other words, children six years of age were found to have higher levels of BPA's by-product glucuronide in their urine than did mice dosed with the chemical that later developed cancer and other health issues.

Further complicating the issue is the stew of other estrogen-mimicking chemicals to which humans are routinely exposed, from soy to antibacterial ingredients in some soaps. The effects of such chemical mixtures are not known but scientists say they may serve to enhance the ill effects of one another. "The assumption that natural estrogens are somehow immediately good for you and these chemicals are immediately bad," Belcher says, "is probably not a reasonable assumption to make."

The chemical industry argues that unless BPA is proved to have ill effects it should continue to be manufactured and used, because it is cheap, lightweight, shatterproof and offers other features that are hard to match. "There is no alternative for either of those materials [polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins] that would simply drop in where those materials are used," Hentges says.

Not so, says vom Saal, who notes that there are plenty of other materials, such as polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, that would be fine substitutes in at least some applications. "There are a whole variety of different kinds of plastic materials and glass," he says. "They are all more stable than polycarbonate."

Concern over BPA is not confined only to the U.S. Japanese manufacturers began to use natural resin instead of BPA to line cans in 1997 after Japanese scientists showed that it was leaching out of baby bottles. A subsequent study there that measured levels in urine in 1999 found that they had dropped significantly.

A new E.U. law (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemical Substances, or REACH), which took effect last year, requires that chemicals, such as BPA, be proved safe. Currently, though, it continues to be used in Europe; the EFSA last year found no reason for alarm based on rodent studies. European scientists cited multigenerational rat studies as reassuring and noted that mouse studies may be flawed because the tiny rodent is more susceptible to estrogens.

For now, U.S. scientists with concerns about BPA recommend that anyone sharing those worries avoid using products made from it: Polycarbonate plastic is clear or colored and typically marked with a number 7 on the bottom, and canned foods such as soups can be purchased in cardboard cartons instead.

If canned goods or clear plastic bottles are a must, such containers should never be microwaved, used to store heated liquids or foods, or washed in hot water (either by hand or in much hotter dishwashers). "These are fantastic products and they work well … [but] based on my knowledge of the scientific data, there is reason for caution," Belcher says. "I have made a decision for myself not to use them."

U.S. Medical Schools Still Vulnerable to Financial Conflicts of Interest

Research centers are uneven in monitoring ties that might harm study volunteers

Many U.S. medical schools lack procedures to deal with the full range of financial conflicts of interests.

According to a new survey, fewer than half of the U.S. medical schools queried have policies in place to safeguard against improper financial links with drug companies. And it is not clear whether those with such safeguards actually enforce them. The findings come from the first national survey to examine the potential for what are called institutional conflicts of interest (ICOI) between pharmaceutical manufacturers or other for-profit groups and academic medical research centers that oversee drug testing on human subjects.

There is no data on whether the lack of oversight is damaging research, but "it's another potential source of at least apparent conflict, if not real," says study co-author Susan Ehringhaus, assistant general counsel for the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) in Washington, D.C. "The protection of the integrity of research, the protection of human subjects—these are fundamental values. Anything that would call them into question suggests the need for systematic and serious response."

Ehringhaus, working with colleagues from the AAMC as well as Massachusetts General Hospital and the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, sent surveys to the deans of 125 medical schools, both public and private, questioning them about the scope and nature of their ICOI policies.

Of the 86 schools (69 percent) that responded, 30 (38 percent) said they had procedures for evaluating sources of income such as royalties on patents, stocks and large contributions that fill their schools' coffers. Some said they also kept tabs on officials involved in drug testing: 55 schools (70 percent) reported monitoring senior and mid-level officials responsible for hiring and firing, and 62 of them (81 percent) said they kept an eye on members of so-called institutional review boards, who approve human research proposals.

Congress in 1980 passed a law called the Bayh–Dole Act, designed to speed commercialization of publicly funded research by making it easier for universities to patent and license their research as well as partner with for-profit companies.

The AAMC in 2001 recommended a set of specific guidelines to prevent ICOI, including separating the staffs that supervise human research from those that manage investments and license technology. Nearly all the 77 schools (74, or 94 percent) reported that they were following this guideline by assuring no single individual was responsible for both supervising research and approving financial investments.

U.S. Set to Destroy Crippled Satellite Before It Contaminates the Atmosphere

The Pentagon says rocket fuel from plummeting rogue satellite poses a health threat

 
MERCY MISSION: NASA administrator Michael Griffin (right) comments on a proposed attempt to destroy an unresponsive U.S. reconnaissance satellite just as it enters the Earth's atmosphere, during a news briefing at the Pentagon, Feb. 14, 2008. Griffin was joined by Marine Gen. James Cartwright (center), vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Ambassador James Jeffrey, assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor.

 
NO ENTRY: Satellites tend to rotate in space just above the Earth's atmosphere and don't usually return with as much highly toxic hydrazine fuel as the troubled National Reconnaissance Office satellite.

 
THE WRONG STUFF: The largest uncontrolled re-entry by a US space agency (NASA) craft was the abandoned 91-metric ton (200,600-pound) Skylab space station in 1979.

The U.S. military plans to try to blast a malfunctioning satellite out of the sky by the end of the month to prevent the bus-size hunk of metal from leaking highly hazardous fuel into the atmosphere as it falls to Earth. The U.S. Department of Defense says the Navy will use surface-to-air missiles to knock it out sometime after February 20, when the space shuttle Atlantis is scheduled to return from its mission to the International Space Station.

The satellite, launched by the National Reconnaissance Office in December 2006 is not expected to hit a populated area, James Jeffery, deputy national security advisor, said yesterday during a press conference. But he added that President Bush decided to it should be destroyed to prevent leakage of highly toxic hydrazine fuel on its return. (For a transcript of the press conference, click here.)

In late January the U.S. government notified other nations that the satellite was unresponsive and would make an uncontrolled reentry later this month or in early March. Now the Navy is planning to intercept it prior to reentry at about 150 miles (240 kilometers) altitude, so that the unused hydrazine will be dispersed before it reaches the atmosphere. The weapon of choice: three modified Standard Missile (SM) 3 surface-to-air missiles launched from Aegis ships located somewhere in the North Pacific (the military would not be more specific). The window for shooting down the satellite opens in the next three or four days and will remain open for as many as eight days, according to Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The Defense Department estimates that if the satellite is not intercepted, a sizable 2,800-pound (1,270-kilogram) chunk (about half its total weight) will survive reentry. The vehicle's 20-inch (50-centimeter) round fuel tank holds about 1,000 pounds (450 kilograms) of hydrazine that would have been spent during a successful mission; it was not, however, because ground control lost contact with it soon after launch. The Washington Post reported today that the shuttle Columbia contained a canister of hydrazine when it ripped apart during reentry over Texas in 2003, but that most of the toxic fuel had already burned because the doomed shuttle had nearly completed its mission.

Cartwright said that if the satellite is not shot down, its hydrazine could disperse over an area roughly the size of two football fields. He noted that anyone who inhaled the chemical, which can severely damage lung tissue, would need medical attention.

Military officials refused to release certain details—insisting that information such as the manufacturer, mission and price tag of the failed satellite is "classified." But they insist that the strike against the vehicle is not an effort to keep debris that survives the impact from falling into the wrong hands and divulging military secrets.

Cartwright positioned the situation by saying, "the worst that could happen is that we miss" (although this doesn't take into account the impact that failure could have on the environment). "If we hit the hydrazine tank, then we've improved the potential to mitigate that threat," he added. "The regret factor of not acting clearly outweighed the regret factor of acting."

The largest uncontrolled reentry by a U.S. spacecraft was NASA's abandoned 91-metric ton (200,600-pound) Skylab space station in 1979. China sparked international outrage last year when it was discovered that it had used a ground-based ballistic missile to destroy a target satellite about 600 miles (375 kilometers) above Earth. The U.S., Japan and Australia expressed concerns that China was demonstrating its ability to shoot down spy satellites and the destroyed vehicle's debris is hazardous to other orbiting spacecraft. The U.S. is hoping its concern over its errant satellite's fuel will obviate international criticism.

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